I woke up yesterday morning and watched a little CNN before going to work, and unexpectedly they showed a map of the predicted track of Hurricane Ophelia. The map had a complex loop and showed the track going directly through Savannah, Georgia, and the prediction was for landfall on Wednesday next week.

Since reading up on chaos theory I felt like I know a little about hurricane prediction; or rather, the immensely complex factors that have to be considered, the computing power that is required to process those variables, and an appreciation for the element of chance that it’s all trying to conquer. So I wasn’t immediately distressed about this 5-6 day out prediction, but I thought that that map, if I could get it, would make a good posting. I did find a reasonable facsimile that I passed around the office later that morning, but I was too busy to post it. So now that I have the time, I looked up a fresh map from the National Hurricane Center, and was a little disappointed to see the track has been resketched quite a bit further north:

I was watching CNN instead of the local news because I, like so many others, having been trying to catch imagery of the effects of Hurricane Katrina. Not from schadenfreude, but to address the dismay I feel at the blase attitude I had taken regarding the victims’ suffering on the first few days after Katrina passed through. Unlike our president, I was quite aware of the effects of the demolition of all infrastructure on a civilized society. I started reading Michael Barnett’s account last Thursday and wasn’t at all surprised, but I guess that since the more humane feelings about human life that I have felt since watching Boo grow up, I expected that I would have had more concern. It seems that I have not yet escaped the impact that The Lord of the Flies had on me when I read it at such a young age.

I do give a shit about those poor people; I feel a little relieved that the last reports indicate that casualties are lower than predicted by the now rediscovered doomsday scenarios, and I am impressed by the outpouring of support from not only the American people but the rest of the world, who have demonstrated once again that even if they resent the wealth and power of the United States, they have compassion for our pain.

What I am resisting being interested in, but know that I will be, is the political and strategic implications of this disaster. I can see that Michael Brown, the head of FEMA, is already being slated as the goat by this supposedly no-nonsense, “compassionate conservative” administration, but have little confidence that the transparency will become seen by the electorate. I could go on – there’s lots of opportunity here for me to pontificate – but I am not trying to become a political blogger, and I take little solace in being right when attempting to predict the future. I know my own predictions would be intensely shaped by my own libertarian (and thus, non-mainstream) politics, and am too resigned to disappointment.

OK, I doth protest too much. Let me squeeze in just a little prediction. Clinton in ’08. I don’t particularly like it (after all, I am a Republican), but that’s what it is. I said it five years ago without knowing about a lot of things that have since come to pass, but it seems more and more likely. Maybe I’ll yield to more predictions later, but since I don’t have the drive to attempt to become a shaper of politics, I’ll settle for the historian’s approach of being an observer, and hope to be a good analyst.

Besides, I have more immediate concerns. I need to feel empathy for the victims of Katrina, I need to pack for my trip to Savannah, and I need to invest in a good rain jacket, since the gortex I have relied on since leaving the army was purchased when I was 60 pounds lighter (thank the gods, not 80 pounds any more.) When moving to San Diego was influenced by the less than 10 inches of rain a year, it became hard to motivate myself to keep up on rain wear.

Posted by Greg as Current Events, Politics, Posts About Me at 17:16 PST

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I guess I’m not the only Republican who has felt betrayed by George W. Bush.

Some conservative observers have, however, begun to think the unthinkable, and have begun to question the priorities and policies the Bush presidency, and consider whether these advance or undermine the essential conservative values of limited government, fiscal responsibility, personal liberty, and sound, effective national defense.

Read more.

I’m still sure that these folks would have differences with me on my positions on individual liberties where they conflict with social mores, but at least we are on the same page as far as fiscal responsibility and opposition to international adventurism goes.

My apologies to George F. Will. Apparently he has established a clear track record in opposing the current administration on matters of principle.

Posted by Greg as Politics at 17:04 PST

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So far I’ve stayed silent on politics, but that’s always been destined to change. I don’t have the time to sit down and write out a manifesto, so I’ll just have to toss little tidbits in as we go along.

I’ve always liked George F. Will, even though I’ve rarely agreed completely with him. He has a clear, logical approach to expounding his position, and many times I’ve read his words and had to adjust my own opinions. But he has always been way too conservative for my taste, and a supporter, if not voice, for the far right. So I was very surprised to read his column in the May 23rd issue of Newsweek.

He takes the whole column to get to the point, and maybe that’s a bit of smokescreen (or perhaps some reluctant foot-dragging) but here’s the part that made me jump:

…the greatest threat to civility—and ultimately to civilization—is an excess of certitude. The world is much menaced just now by people who think that the world and their duties in it are clear and simple. They are certain that they know what—who—created the universe and what this creator wants them to do to make our little speck in the universe perfect, even if extreme measures—even violence—are required.

Mr. Will has trumpeted the second Bush presidency since it was a campaign, and this is probably as close as he can come to a direct admonishment. He gets even more direct:

It has been well said that the spirit of liberty is the spirit of not being too sure that you are right.

There’s lot of ways to interpret these words, of course, but what stood out to me is a criticism of Bush’s handling of international affairs, and possibly his heavy-handedness in domestic matters. I’ve spent a little time searching and I haven’t found any columns by Mr. Will on the nomination to the UN of John Bolton. I did find his column arguing against the “nuclear option” of ending filibusters for judicial nominees. Considering the current rancor between parties on Capitol Hill, I’m surprised that Mr. Will isn’t toeing the neoconservative line.

Now I’m not an avid George F. Will follower who reads all his columns and watches him on the Sunday morning tv shows, so perhaps he would be surprised at my surprise. As moderate, libertarian-leaning Republican who is horrified and embarrassed by President Bush’s fiscal irresponsibility and downright scared of the religious right’s assault on our civil liberties, I have been starting to feel pretty out of place in my party, and it sure is nice seeing at least one of our stalwarts standing up against the “my way or the highway” attitudes that seem to have taken over.

Posted by Greg as Politics at 15:25 PST

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