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Friday, August 11th, 2006

2006 Chargers Playoffs Hopes – Preseason

Yep – it’s coming up on that time of year again. I’ve been jonesing for months, but now we’re just a day away from the preseason opener at home against Green Bay. I’ve been following the reports from training camp, and I’m ready to make my preseason predictions.

The 2006-2007 schedule has been out for a while, and it is way easier that the toughest-in-the-league 2005 one. Last year we had a strength of schedule of 0.559 – this year, we’re in the bottom half, with 0.488.

By averaging the the odds offered at seventeen locations (Oddschecker.com), I see we’re listed at 23.24-1 for winning the Super Bowl, at thirteenth place. Ahead of us are Indianapolis (the favorite at 6.03-1), New England, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Denver, Dallas, Miami, Washington, Kansas City, Chicago, and Cincinnati. I think there is some heavy skepticism implicit in these odds, because no one knows how good our new quarterback is going to turn out to be.

Going through the schedule, I see just three iffy non-divisional games: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Seattle, and four divisional games against the tough Denver and Kansas City teams. I’m going to claim our divisional home games and just throw the two away ones into the ring. That makes five contentious games.

I think we can win half of those, and to round things out, I’ll throw in a 50% chance of losing another game against a weaker opponent (say, like Miami last year) or from playing at home in the rain (San Diegans just don’t deal well with rain), and just one game from qb inexperience. So I’m calling a 12-4 season (although I’m itching to call 13-3.)

Yep, that’s the same as our surprise-the-experts 2004 season, and I’m calling it with Philip Rivers at the helm instead of Drew Brees. And I think we can go all the way.

Posted by Greg in Football

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