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Friday, November 24th, 2006

2006 Chargers Playoff Hopes – Week 11+

With a Kansas City win over Denver on Thanksgiving, and San Diego facing the weak Oakland at home this Sunday, calling the winner of the AFC West this year gets a little easier – it’s San Diego, as long as they don’t mess up against the Raiders. San Diego should win, but with their heavy causalities on the defense, Oakland’s desire to play hard during this traditional rivalry, and the idea of recent praise getting to the Chargers’ heads and softening them up, it’s definitely not a given. I’m counting on Marty to ride this team so that they don’t soften, and they’ve spent too much time this season with no respect to let the recent notice of the talking heads go to their heads yet. Our depth at defense has proven itself, and our second and third stringers are ready and able to show their ability to take the 2006 Chargers to their destiny – all the way.

So at this point in the season, I’m not so worried about discussing whether the Chargers will make the playoffs – I’m looking at how they will be positioned, and their chances of going to the SuperBowl. And despite the dominance of the Chicago Bears over the NFC, there’s just no way that the AFC Champion won’t be able to take the NFC victor this year.

So I’ve done an analysis of the AFC at this point. Wow, what a struggle! So many good teams going up against each other; so many unknowns and outcomes impossible to call. There’s a lot of great football left this year. But I’ve looked at the remaining schedule and I’m ready to try the impossible. Why not? Just lump me in as another talking head.

Here’s what we have left in the AFC, looking at the current leaders. First, the current division leaders, with records and streaks. Divisional games are highlighted in red, conference games in yellow:

SD 8-2 (+4) IND 9-1 (-1) BAL 8-2 (+4) NE 7-3 (+1)
OAK 2-8 (-3) PHI 5-5 (-1) PIT 4-6 (+2) CHI 9-1 (+2)
@BUF 4-6 (+1) @TEN 3-7 (+1) @CIN 5-5 (+1) DET 2-9 (-3)
DEN 7-4 (-2) @JAX 6-4 (+1) @KC 7-4 (+2) @MIA 5-6 (+4)
KC 7-4 (+2) CIN 5-5 (+1) CLE 3-7 (-1) HOU 3-7 (-1)
@SEA 6-4 (-1) @HOU 3-7 (-1) @PIT 4-6 (+2) @JAX 6-4 (+1)
ARI 2-8 (+1) MIA 5-6 (+4) BUF 4-6 (+1) @TEN 3-7 (+1)

My calls:

SD 13-3 IND 14-2 BAL 12-4 NE 11-5

Looking at the wildcard possibilities:

KC 7-4 (+2) DEN 7-4 (-2) JAX 6-4 (+1) CIN 5-5 (+1) NYJ 5-5 (-1)
@BUF 4-6 (+1) @CLE 3-7 (-1) HOU 3-7 (-1)
@CLE 3-7 (-1) SEA 6-4 (-1) @MIA 5-6 (+4) BAL 8-2 (+4) @GB 4-6 (-1)
BAL 8-2 (+4) @SD 8-2 (+4) IND 9-1 (-1) OAK 2-8 (-3) BUF 4-6 (+1)
@SD 8-2 (+4) @ARI 2-8 (+1) @TEN 3-7 (+1) @IND 9-1 (-1) @MIN 4-6 (-4)
@OAK 2-8 (-3) CIN 5-5 (+1) NE 7-3 (+1) @DEN 7-4 (-2) @MIA 5-6 (+4)
JAX 6-4 (+1) SF 5-5 (+3) @KC 7-4 (+2) PIT 4-6 (+2) OAK 2-8 (-3)

My calls:

KC 11-5 DEN 10-6 JAX 10-6 CIN 8-8 NYJ 10-6

Now, that would leave three teams at 10-6, fighting for the last wildcard spot. According to the NFL tiebreaking rules, three tied teams would first resort to divisional records:

10-6 Current Projected
DEN 3-2 3-3
JAX 1-3 2-4
NYJ 3-1 5-1

That would put the New York Jets into the sixth seed and the playoffs. Can’t say I’m happy about that, given the way the Jets knocked San Diego out during the Chargers miracle 2004 season, but that would result in the following first round of the playoffs:

Home Team Record Against Record My Call
Indianapolis 14-2 Bye
San Diego 13-3 Bye
Baltimore 12-4 New York Jets 10-6 Baltimore
New England 11-5 Kansas City 11-5 New England

Continuing to the second round:

Home Team Against
My Call
Indianapolis New England New England
San Diego Baltimore San Diego

So I’m calling an AFC Championship game of San Diego vs. New England at San Diego. I’ll call that game at San Diego by 3, and the Chargers go on to the SuperBowl, where they’ll win by 8.

Go Chargers!

Posted by Greg in Football

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This entry was posted on Friday, November 24th, 2006 at 10:16 PST and is filed under Football. You can follow any responses to this entry through the comments RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

One Response to “2006 Chargers Playoff Hopes – Week 11+”

  1. Ramblings » Blog Archive » 2006 Chargers Playoffs SuperBowl Hopes - Week 13 says:

    […] 2006 Chargers Playoffs SuperBowl Hopes – Week 13 Four regular season games to go, and although the San Diego Chargers don’t have it locked up yet, it’s going to take a plane crash (knock on wood) to keep them out of the playoffs. But thanks to the recent losses by Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Kansas City, my vision of how we’re going to win the AFC Championship and the SuperBowl is now hopelessly muddled. The AFC wild card slots are up for grabs in a (currently) five way tie between Cincinnati, NY Jets, KC, Denver, and Jacksonville. As for the NFC – who cares? Let them put together a dream team out of all their playoff winners – the Chargers will still beat them. […]